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Climate-Variability Has A Significant Impact On Farm-Business Profitability. While Notable Improvements Have Been Made In Seasonal Forecasting With General Circulation Models Gcms, Growers And Producers Are Frustrated By The Inherently Variable Skill Within And Between Models From One Season To The Next And In Different Locations I.E. Different Grid Cells For Which Forecasts Are Issued.A Recently Completed Rural R&D For Profit Project On Improving Seasonal Forecasting Rdc00014completed An Assessment Of Seasonal Forecast Skill For A Small Number Of Gcms Where Forecasts Were Issued At Key Decision Points For Aiding With On-Farm Decision Making.The Models Evaluated Showed Considerable Discrepancies In Skill When Forecasting Rainfall Terciles Based On A Statistical Analysis Of Forecast ‘Hit-Rate’. The Grdc And The Other Participating Sectors Within The Managing Climate Variability Program Meat And Livestock Australia, Cotton Research And Development Corporation, Sugar Research Australia And Agrifutures Are Seeking To Build Upon Previous And Current Research Assessing The Comparative Skill Of Different Seasonal Forecast Systems I.E. Model X Grid Cell X Time Of The Year The Forecast Is Issued To Aid With On-Farm Decision Making. While It’S Important For Growers And Producers To Have Access To Robust, Quantitative Assessments Of Seasonal Forecast Skill, It’S Equally Important For That Information To Be Well Contextualised And Communicated In A Manner That Accounts For Any Limitations With Research Methodologies. To Demonstrate The Benefits Of Integrating That Information Within Decision Making Processes On-Farm, A Series Of Case Studies Identifying The Potential Economic Benefits From Integrating Seasonal Forecasts With Crop And/Or Production System Models To Guide Strategic Decision Making E.G. Crop Choice Is A Supplementary Focus Area Within The Project.

GTN :16576659
Australia - Australia

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